--- name: deal-health-risk-scoring description: Identify at-risk deals before they slip using deal health scores and risk alerts. Use when monitoring pipeline health, identifying deals at risk of stalling or losing, creating deal risk dashboards, or setting up automated deal health alerts. Triggers on phrases like "deal health score", "at-risk deals", "deal risk alerts", "pipeline risk assessment", "deal stall detection", "opportunity risk scoring". --- # Deal Health Scoring & Risk Alerts Proactively identify at-risk deals before they slip through automated health scoring, risk factor analysis, and early warning alerts. ## Workflow 1. Define deal health factors and their weights (engagement, multi-threading, champion strength, timeline, competition). 2. Calculate real-time health score for every open opportunity. 3. Flag deals with declining health scores or scores below threshold. 4. Alert sales rep and manager with specific risk factors and suggested remediation. 5. Track remediation actions and measure impact on health score recovery. 6. Generate weekly pipeline health reports and risk trend analysis. ## Deal Health Scoring Model ``` DEAL HEALTH SCORING FRAMEWORK ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Health Factor 1 — Engagement Level (Weight: 25%): Scoring Criteria: → Activity frequency (touches in last 7 days): 3+ touches/week: +25 points (high engagement) 1–2 touches/week: +15 points (moderate engagement) < 1 touch/week: +5 points (low engagement) → Activity quality: Meetings held (discovery, demo, exec alignment): +5 per meeting Emails exchanged (bidirectional): +3 per meaningful exchange Calls made (10+ minutes): +3 per call Content engagement (downloads, views): +2 per engagement → Response time (prospect to rep): < 24 hours: +10 points (highly responsive) 1–3 days: +5 points (moderately responsive) 3–7 days: +2 points (slowly responsive) > 7 days: -5 points (disengaging) → Last touch recency: Within 3 days: +10 points 4–7 days: +5 points 8–14 days: +2 points > 14 days: -10 points (significant risk) Maximum Score: 25 points Health Factor 2 — Multi-Threading (Weight: 20%): Scoring Criteria: → Number of engaged stakeholders: 4+ stakeholders engaged: +20 points (excellent multi-threading) 3 stakeholders: +15 points (good) 2 stakeholders: +10 points (adequate) 1 stakeholder: +5 points (single-threaded — high risk) → Stakeholder seniority spread: Economic buyer + technical buyer + champion: +5 bonus VP+ engagement confirmed: +5 bonus End-user engagement confirmed: +3 bonus → Stakeholder engagement quality: All stakeholders responded in last 14 days: +5 bonus Champion actively advocating internally: +5 bonus Maximum Score: 20 points Health Factor 3 — Champion Strength (Weight: 20%): Scoring Criteria: → Champion identification: Champion confirmed (self-identified or validated): +15 points Champion suspected (based on engagement): +8 points No champion identified: +0 points (critical risk) → Champion influence level: Direct decision-maker (economic buyer): +10 points Strong influence (can drive decision process): +7 points Moderate influence (can provide input): +4 points Weak influence (information gatherer only): +1 point → Champion access to decision-maker: Direct access (reports to or peers with economic buyer): +10 points Indirect access (can arrange meetings): +5 points Limited access (information only): +2 points → Champion risk factors: Champion recent hire (< 3 months): -5 points (may leave) Champion negative sentiment detected: -10 points Champion engagement declining: -5 points Maximum Score: 20 points Health Factor 4 — Timeline & Urgency (Weight: 20%): Scoring Criteria: → Timeline specificity: Specific close date (day/month): +15 points Quarter-specific: +10 points Vague timeline ("sometime this year"): +5 points No timeline identified: +0 points (critical risk) → Timeline urgency: Close within 30 days: +10 points (high urgency) Close within 30–60 days: +7 points Close within 60–90 days: +5 points Close > 90 days: +2 points → Timeline credibility: Budget approved: +10 points Budget in process: +5 points Budget not identified: +0 points → Timeline slippage: Close date moved 0 times: +5 bonus Close date moved 1–2 times: +0 bonus Close date moved 3+ times: -10 points (pattern of delay) Maximum Score: 20 points Health Factor 5 — Competitive Position (Weight: 15%): Scoring Criteria: → Competitor involvement: No competitors: +15 points (sole source) 1 competitor, we're preferred: +10 points 1 competitor, equal positioning: +7 points 1 competitor, they're preferred: +3 points 2+ competitors: +5 points (complex competitive landscape) Incumbent competitor (replacement deal): +0 points (high risk) → Differentiation clarity: Clear competitive advantage articulated: +10 bonus Moderate differentiation: +5 bonus Weak differentiation (commoditized): -5 points → Battle card alignment: Battle card reviewed and applied: +5 bonus Competitive strategy documented: +5 bonus Maximum Score: 15 points Health Factor 6 — Deal Complexity (Weight: 10%): Scoring Criteria: → Deal size vs. average: < 2x average deal size: +10 points (standard deal) 2–5x average: +7 points (larger deal, moderate complexity) 5–10x average: +5 points (large deal, high complexity) > 10x average: +2 points (enterprise deal, very complex) → Customization required: Standard product offering: +10 points Minor customization needed: +7 points Significant customization needed: +3 points → Implementation complexity: Simple implementation (< 2 weeks): +10 points Moderate implementation (2–6 weeks): +7 points Complex implementation (6–12 weeks): +3 points Maximum Score: 10 points TOTAL HEALTH SCORE: 0–100 points (sum of all weighted factors) ``` ## Risk Classification and Alerts ``` DEAL RISK CLASSIFICATION ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Risk Level 1 — HEALTHY (Score: 75–100): Status: Deal progressing well; no immediate action needed Alert: None (standard monitoring) Check-in: Weekly pipeline review Expected close probability: 60–85% Action: Continue standard selling process Risk Level 2 — WATCH (Score: 55–74): Status: Deal showing some risk factors; needs attention Alert: Email notification to rep within 24 hours of score drop Alert Content: "⚠️ Deal [Account] health score dropped to [Score]/100 Risk factors: [Specific factors — e.g., 'Engagement declining', 'Close date moved 2x', 'No economic buyer engaged'] Suggested actions: [Personalized remediation steps] [Link to deal record] | [Link to remediation guide]" Check-in: Bi-weekly pipeline review Expected close probability: 30–60% Action: Address specific risk factors within 5 business days Risk Level 3 — AT RISK (Score: 35–54): Status: Deal at significant risk of stalling or losing Alert: Email + Slack notification to rep AND manager within 2 hours Alert Content: "🚨 Deal [Account] flagged as AT RISK — Score: [Score]/100 Top 3 risk factors: 1. [Risk factor] — Impact: [High/Medium/Low] 2. [Risk factor] — Impact: [High/Medium/Low] 3. [Risk factor] — Impact: [High/Medium/Low] Required actions: [Specific remediation steps with deadlines] Manager review required within 48 hours. [Link to deal record] | [Link to risk remediation playbook]" Check-in: Weekly 1:1 with manager (dedicated pipeline discussion) Expected close probability: 15–30% Action: Manager involvement required; remediation plan within 3 days Risk Level 4 — CRITICAL (Score: < 35): Status: Deal highly likely to stall or be lost; immediate action required Alert: Slack + Email + Phone notification to rep, manager, AND VP Sales Alert Content: "🔴 CRITICAL: Deal [Account] score [Score]/100 — Immediate attention This deal is at high risk of being lost. Key issues: [Detailed risk assessment with specific factors] Required: Emergency deal review within 24 hours Decision: Salvage plan or close lost [Link to deal record] | [Link to escalation process]" Check-in: Daily check-in until score recovers or deal closes Expected close probability: < 15% Action: Emergency deal review; executive intervention if strategic; close lost if salvage not feasible AUTOMATIC ESCALATION RULES: → Score drops > 20 points in 7 days: Immediate alert regardless of absolute score → Score drops below 50 for first time: Alert + suggested remediation → Score below 35 for 14+ days: Auto-escalate to VP Sales → Score below 25 for 21+ days: Recommend close lost + re-engagement plan → Champion leaves company: Immediate Critical alert → Economic buyer indicates switching to competitor: Immediate Critical alert ``` ## Risk Remediation Playbook ``` REMEDIATION ACTIONS BY RISK FACTOR ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Risk Factor: Declining Engagement Symptoms: < 1 touch/week, no response in 7+ days, declining email open rates Remediation Actions: 1. "Check-in" email: "Hi [Name], just checking in — everything going well with [project/initiative we discussed]?" 2. Value-add outreach: Share relevant content (case study, industry insight) without asking for anything 3. Phone call: "Hey [Name], wanted to make sure I'm not being too aggressive — also wanted to share [quick insight]..." 4. Stakeholder pivot: Engage different contact at account 5. Breakup email: "Should I stay or should I go?" — often triggers response Timeline: Execute within 3 business days of alert Success Metric: Engagement recovery (≥ 1 touch/week within 7 days) Risk Factor: Single-Threaded Deal Symptoms: Only 1 stakeholder engaged, no economic buyer access Remediation Actions: 1. Ask champion for introductions: "Who else should be involved in this?" 2. Research buying committee: LinkedIn, org chart, company website 3. Multi-channel outreach: Email + LinkedIn + phone to identified stakeholders 4. Warm introduction: Request intro from champion or mutual connection 5. Executive alignment: Offer executive-to-executive meeting Timeline: Identify 2+ additional stakeholders within 5 business days Success Metric: 3+ engaged stakeholders within 14 days Risk Factor: Champion Risk (Weak or Departing) Symptoms: Champion disengaging, negative sentiment, recent job change Remediation Actions: 1. Identify backup champion: Engage secondary stakeholder immediately 2. Strengthen current champion: Executive briefing, exclusive insights, personalized value demonstration 3. Deploy champion's champion: Identify and engage champion's boss 4. Social proof injection: Reference calls with similar customers 5. Urgency creation: Time-sensitive offer, limited capacity, pricing change Timeline: Backup champion identified within 3 business days Success Metric: New champion confirmed or current champion re-engaged Risk Factor: Timeline Slippage Symptoms: Close date moved 2+ times, vague timeline, no budget confirmation Remediation Actions: 1. Direct conversation: "I want to be transparent — what's the real timeline?" 2. Budget discovery: "Has budget been formally approved? Who controls it?" 3. Mutual action plan: Create shared timeline with milestones and owners 4. Executive escalation: Executive-to-executive call to set commitment 5. Pilot/POC: Start with smaller engagement while full deal progresses Timeline: Specific close date and budget status confirmed within 7 days Success Metric: Close date confirmed and budget approved within 14 days Risk Factor: Competitive Threat Symptoms: Competitor engaged, competitor preferred, incumbent replacement Remediation Actions: 1. Battle card deployment: Review competitor weaknesses and our differentiation 2. Competitive discovery: "What do you like about [Competitor]? What's your biggest concern?" 3. Switching incentive: Migration support, pricing guarantee, extended trial 4. Customer deflection stories: Case studies from customers who switched 5. Technical differentiation: Side-by-side demo highlighting unique capabilities Timeline: Competitive strategy executed within 5 business days Success Metric: Competitive positioning confirmed or deal won ``` ## Pipeline Health Dashboard ``` PIPELINE HEALTH DASHBOARD METRICS ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Overall Pipeline Health: → Average deal health score: [Target: > 65/100] → % deals in Healthy zone: [Target: > 60%] → % deals in Watch zone: [Target: < 25%] → % deals in At Risk zone: [Target: < 10%] → % deals in Critical zone: [Target: < 5%] Deal Age Analysis: → Average days in current stage: [Compare to historical average] → Deals > 2× average stage duration: [Count and total value] → Deals > 3× average stage duration: [Count and total value — immediate review] → Oldest deal in pipeline: [Account, value, age, owner] Engagement Analysis: → Deals with no activity in 14+ days: [Count and value] → Deals with no activity in 30+ days: [Count and value — stale] → Average touches per deal/week: [Target: > 2] → Deals with only 1 stakeholder: [Count and value — multi-threading gap] Risk Trend Analysis: → Health score trend (last 30 days): [Improving/Stable/Declining] → New at-risk deals this week: [Count] → Deals recovered from at-risk: [Count] → Deals lost that were flagged at-risk: [Count — model validation] → Deals lost that were NOT flagged at-risk: [Count — model gap analysis] Manager/Rep Scorecard: → Rep name | Avg deal health | % healthy deals | At-risk recovery rate | Lost deals → Manager name | Team avg health | Deals requiring intervention | Pipeline coverage ``` ## Edge Cases - **False positive risk alerts**: Deal appears unhealthy but has legitimate reasons for low activity (e.g., holiday period, customer on sabbatical, procurement cycle) - Resolution: Allow manual override of health score with documented reason; implement seasonal/holiday adjustments; flag but don't auto-escalate during known low-activity periods; require rep confirmation before escalation - **Over-escalation fatigue**: Too many risk alerts cause alert fatigue — reps stop paying attention - Resolution: Calibrate alert thresholds based on rep feedback; implement escalating severity levels (Watch → At Risk → Critical); suppress repeated alerts for same deal within 7 days; provide clear remediation steps (not just "deal at risk") - **Health score manipulation**: Reps may artificially inflate health scores by logging fake activities or adding irrelevant stakeholders - Resolution: Validate activity quality (not just quantity); cross-reference with conversation intelligence (Gong/Chorus); flag anomalies (sudden spike in logged activities); manager review of health score improvements - **New deal cold start**: Newly created deals have no activity history — health score may be inaccurate - Resolution: Implement minimum age requirement before health scoring activates (7 days); use default health score based on account/profile data only; escalate faster for new deals (shorter time to first alert) - **Enterprise deal complexity**: Large enterprise deals may naturally have lower health scores (longer cycles, more stakeholders, more complex) - Resolution: Adjust scoring weights for enterprise deals (less weight on engagement frequency, more on milestone completion); implement deal-size-adjusted thresholds; separate health score benchmarks by deal size segment ## Integration Points - **Salesforce CRM**: Deal health score fields, automation rules, dashboards; $25–$3,000/month per user - **HubSpot CRM**: Deal scoring with workflow automation; $45–$3,200/month - **Gong/Chorus**: Conversation intelligence for engagement scoring; $120–$240/month per user - **Outreach.io/SalesLoft**: Activity tracking for engagement metrics; $80–$200/month per user - **ZoomInfo/Apollo**: Stakeholder identification and org chart data; $12,000–$50,000/year - **Slack**: Real-time risk alerts and notifications; custom channels - **Tableau/Looker/Power BI**: Pipeline health dashboards and analytics; $70–$1,200/month per user - **Salesforce Einstein**: AI-powered deal scoring and predictions; included with Enterprise - **Clari**: Revenue operations platform with deal intelligence; custom pricing - **Dealfront**: CRM with built-in deal health scoring; $60–$120/month per user